Task 2
From CAWSES
Contents |
How will Geospace Respond to a Changing Climate?
Co-leaders:
- Jan Lastovicka (CZ)
- Daniel Marsh (USA)
Introduction
Radiative, chemical, and dynamical forcing from below contributes to disturbances of the upper atmosphere. In response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, cooling in the middle atmosphere will alter the complex physical and chemical processes of this region. Patterns of cooling and contraction of the upper atmosphere are emerging from model studies and observations, consistent with a strong connection to changes in the lower atmosphere. Recent changes in noctilucent cloud distributions, now observed on a global scale by the AIM satellite, are thought to be symptomatic of cooling temperatures in the upper atmosphere. Rising greenhouse gas concentrations alter the ionosphere in a variety of ways and could be transmitted to the magnetosphere. These changes may have unforeseen consequences for space-related technologies and societal infrastructures
Scientific issues
Task Group 2 will focus on answering these three key questions over the next 4 years:
1. How do changes in tropospheric wave generation and their propagation through a changing atmosphere affect the dynamics of the MLT?
2. By how much is the anthropogenic effect on the ionosphere/thermosphere enhanced during a quiet sun period?
3. Are PMC/NLC characteristics trending?
To answer these questions, five projects are established characterize and understand the impacts of:
Project 1.1 Changes in wave sources
storm tracks, mountain waves, convection and stratospheric heating rates
- Project leaders: Jadwiga (Yaga) Richter (US), Kaoru Sato (JP)
- Project members:
Project 1.2 Changes in filtering
Changes of background winds due to CO2 trends and ozone layer changes
- Project leaders: S. Eckermann (US), Elisa Manzini (IT)
- Project members:
Project 1.3 Changes in MLTI dynamics and composition
- Project leaders: G. Beig (IN), C. Jacobi (DE)
- Project members:
- Project leaders: J. Emmert (US), L. Qian (US)
- Project members: L. Alfonsi (Italy), A. Elias (Argentina), M. Mlynczak (USA), H. Schmidt (Germany), S.-R. Zhang (USA)
- Project leaders: G.E. Thomas (US), U. Berger (DE)
- Project members: M. DeLand (USA, , B. Karlsson (Sweden), S. Kirkwood (Sweden), A. Klekociuk (Australia), A. Merkel (USA), N. Pertsev (Russia)
Existing work and plans
The 6th IAGA/ICMA/CAWSES workshop on “Long-Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere” (http://www.hao.ucar.edu/TREND2010/index.php) will be held at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Center Green Conference Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, June15-18, 2010, the week before the 2010 CEDAR (Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions) workshop, which will also be held in Boulder.
Key Linkages
- Cross-task project with Task Group 4 (project 5)
