Task 2
From CAWSES
Contents |
How will Geospace Respond to a Changing Climate?
Co-leaders:
- Jan Lastovicka (CZ)
- Daniel Marsh (US)
Introduction
Radiative, chemical, and dynamical forcing from below contributes to disturbances of the upper atmosphere. In response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, cooling in the middle atmosphere will alter the complex physical and chemical processes of this region. Patterns of cooling and contraction of the upper atmosphere are emerging from model studies and observations, consistent with a strong connection to changes in the lower atmosphere. Recent changes in noctilucent cloud distributions, now observed on a global scale by the AIM satellite, are thought to be symptomatic of cooling temperatures in the upper atmosphere. Rising greenhouse gas concentrations alter the ionosphere in a variety of ways and could be transmitted to the magnetosphere. These changes may have unforeseen consequences for space-related technologies and societal infrastructures
Scientific issues
Task Group 2 will focus on answering these three key questions over the next 4 years:
1. How do changes in tropospheric wave generation and their propagation through a changing atmosphere affect the dynamics of the MLT?
2. By how much is the anthropogenic effect on the ionosphere/thermosphere enhanced during a quiet sun period?
3. Are PMC/NLC characteristics trending?
To answer these questions, five projects are established characterize and understand the impacts of:
Project 1.1 Changes in wave sources
storm tracks, mountain waves, convection and stratospheric heating rates
- Project leaders: Jadwiga (Yaga) Richter (US), Kaoru Sato (JP)
- Project members: J. Bacmeister (US), S. Eckermann (US), M. Ern (DE), P. Kushner (CA), P. Preusse (DE), H. Schmidt (DE), R. A. Vincent (AU), S. Watanabe (JP)
Project 1.2 Changes in filtering
Changes of background winds due to CO2 trends and ozone layer changes
- Project leaders: Elisa Manzini (IT), S. Eckermann (US)
- Project members: V. Ratnam (IN), P. Espy (NO), Y. Kawatani (JP), E. Becker (DE), N. Harnik (IL)
Project 1.3 Changes in MLTI dynamics and composition
- Project leaders: G. Beig (IN), C. Jacobi (DE)
- Project members: C. Arras (DE), M.Bittner (DE), K. Höppner (DE), J.Scheer (AR), S.Gurubaran (IN), A. Manson (CA), C. Meek (CA), D.Murphy (AU) J. Lastovicka (CZ), P. Mukhtarov (BG), E. Merzlyakov (RU), D.Pancheva (BG), A. Pogoreltsev (RU)
- Project leaders: J. Emmert (US), L. Qian (US)
- Project members: L. Alfonsi (Italy), A. Elias (Argentina), M. Mlynczak (US), S. Nossal (US), H. Schmidt (DE), S.-R. Zhang (US)
- Project leaders: G.E. Thomas (US), U. Berger (DE)
- Project members: M. DeLand (US), , B. Karlsson (Sweden), S. Kirkwood (Sweden), A. Klekociuk (Australia), A. Merkel (US), N. Pertsev (RU)
Upcoming Meetings
7th IAGA/ICMA/CAWSES Workshop on Long-Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere, which will be held in September 2012, in Buenos Aires, Argentina [1]
Past Meetings
The 6th IAGA/ICMA/CAWSES workshop on “Long-Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere” (http://www.hao.ucar.edu/TREND2010/index.php) was held at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Center Green Conference Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, June15-18, 2010, the week before the 2010 CEDAR (Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions) workshop, which was also held in Boulder.
AGU Chapman Conference on Atmospheric Gravity Waves and Their Effects on General Circulation and Climate Honolulu, Hawaii, 28 February – 4 March 2011 [2]
Call for papers
JGR Special Section Title: “Long-term changes in the stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere”
Submission acceptance begins 10 Sep 2010
Submission deadline is 19 Nov 2010
Guest Editors: John Emmert and Gufran Beig
Manuscripts are invited for a joint special section of JGR-Space Physics and JGR-Atmospheres on trends in the middle and upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Papers are welcome that apply all types of observational techniques to determine the long-term changes and trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere, that have occurred in the past and also to determine the processes behind those changes. Also solicited are contributions which consider the availability, quality and acquisition of various data sets which may be exploited for trend studies, and statistical methods for deriving and validating those trends. Interpretation and attribution of observational results depends heavily on theoretical models and numerical simulations of the trends, and papers dealing with these topics are particularly welcome. While the troposphere is not the main focus of the special section, it is clear that it has a major role to play in middle and upper atmosphere trends; papers that demonstrate this relevance are also appropriate.
Manuscripts can be submitted either to JGR-Space Physics or JGR-Atmospheres, via the GEMS website. If possible, please send tentative titles to john.emmert at nrl.navy.mil (this is not mandatory, but will help with planning). For more information, please visit http://www.hao.ucar.edu/TREND2010/JGRspecialSection.php.
Key Linkages
- Cross-task project with Task Group 4 (project 5)
